The Shape of Oscars

This year's award season has been full of surprises on many fronts. Some names are cast in stones and destined for the wins, while others, such as evidenced during yesterday's Independent Spirit Awards, are bound to make history during a dramatic turn of events. Progressing along, many of us who are attuned to the highs and lows of the awards scene have made tremendous changes in his or her prediction lists, going back and forth, moving names and films up and down, in and out, just so we could re-align our preferences with the precursors. It is a puzzling situation that exposes our weaknesses as "guesstimators".

After all that's been seen, said and done, it's really anyone's guesses and games, while we chillax and choose the best ones based on our hunches and that of the industry's standards. After which we gather to ask, again and again, year after year - in the celebration of cinematic excellence, who then shall rise to clinch the golden statue? This year, after watching roughly 85% of the nominated films, I can conclude that whichever and whoever takes home the golden man, they all truly deserves their respective accolades. And at this point in time, it takes a bigger phenomenon than last year's La La Land / Moonlight snafu, to totally confound me and blow my mind away.

Chances of winning Best Picture: 92%. Will definitely clinch Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor for Frances McDormand and Sam Rockwell, respectively. A very high chance for Original Screenplay too.






Chances of winning Best Picture: 95%. Will most probably win Best Director for Guillermo de Toro, and a second win for Alexandre Desplat for Best Original Score. Stands a very high chance for Production Design and Costume.






Chances of winning Best Picture: 65%. Darkest Hour is Oscar-bait indefinitely, but it shows that Joe Wright is a godsend for period pieces. With everything else staying constant, this is a lock for Gary Oldman, and with all that heavy lifting, an expected nod for Best Makeup & Hairstyling.

Chances of winning Best Picture: 80%. This film is tricky, and peachy. Timothée Chalamet, at the age of 22, could pull off an upset in the Best Actor category, and at the age of 89, James Ivory might just grab the Original Screenplay award. Age is just a number. Talent always counts.






Chances of winning Best Picture: 89%. Technically, Jordan Peele should get the award for Best Original Screenplay, but with heavyweights like Guillermo del Toro, Christopher Nolan and PT Anderson, the Best Director statue seems illusive, but possible.






Chances of winning Best Picture: 85%. Dunkirk is the epitome of Sound design, so it won't come as a surprise if the statue goes to the team. And the probability of winning Best Original Score for Hans Zimmer is seemingly high.

Chances of winning Best Picture: 85%. I have high respect for Greta Gerwig, and to see her clinching Best Director would definitely be a highlight of the show. Yet again, the seats are hot and the contest is stiff. The one category that they could take home would be Original Screenplay. And by any luck, Supporting Actress for Laurie Metcalf.






Chances of winning Best Picture: 60%. This film is timely, and may win the hearts of the academy voters. But technically, it is ordinarily Spielbergian, and is one of the weakest in the Best Picture race. Any chance for Meryl Streep? Unlikely. But who's to say?






Chances of winning Best Picture: 82%. Just give them the Costume award already. And if anything else, Jonny Greenwood deserves a pat on the back for his mesmerizing score. While I am rooting for Gary Oldman, it will be history in the making if Daniel Day-Lewis clinched his fourth Oscars for his swan song.




––– PREDICTIONS –––

Best Picture: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
alt. The Shape of Water

Best Director: Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
alt. Jordan Peele – Get Out

Best Actor: Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
alt. Timothée Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name

Best Actress: Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
alt. Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water

Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
alt. Christopher Plummer – All The Money In The World

Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney – I, Tonya
alt. Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird

Best Writing - Adapted: Call Me By Your Name
alt. Mudbound


Best Writing - Original: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
alt. Get Out

Best Production Design: The Shape of Water
alt. Blade Runner 2049

Best Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049
alt. The Shape of Water

Best Costume Design: Phantom Thread
alt. Beauty & The Beast

Best Film Editing: Baby Driver
alt. I, Tonya

Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Darkest Hour
alt. Wonder

Best Music (Original Score): The Shape of Water
alt. Dunkirk

Best Music (Original Song): This Is Me – The Greatest Showman
alt. Remember Me – Coco

Best Sound Editing: Dunkirk
alt. Baby Driver

Best Sound Mixing: Baby Driver
alt. Dunkirk

Best Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049
alt. War for The Planet of the Apes

Best Animated Feature Film: Coco
alt. Loving Vincent

Best Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman
alt. The Square

Best Documentary Feature: Faces Places
alt. Icarus

Best Documentary Short: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
alt. Heroin(e)

Best Short Film (Animated): Dear Basketball
alt. Negative Space

Best Short Film (Live Action): DeKalb Elementary
alt. Watu Wote / All of Us


–––


Winners (correct alternative guesses in green, incorrect guesses in red):


Best Picture: The Shape of Water 
Best Director: Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
Best Actor: Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
Best Actress: Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney – I, Tonya
Best Writing - Adapted: Call Me By Your Name
Best Writing - Original: Get Out
Best Production Design: The Shape of Water
Best Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049
Best Costume Design: Phantom Thread
Best Film Editing: Dunkirk
Best Makeup & Hairstyling: Darkest Hour
Best Music (Original Score): The Shape of Water
Best Music (Original Song): Remember Me – Coco
Best Sound Editing: Dunkirk
Best Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Best Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049
 Best Animated Feature: Coco
Best Foreign Language Film: A Fantastic Woman
Best Documentary Feature: Icarus
Best Documentary Short: Heaven Is a Traffic Jam on the 405
Best Short Film (Animated): Dear Basketball
Best Short Film (Live Action): 
 

A Very Classy Show.