The Long Shots

Tough. A singular adjective that epitomizes a cineaste's night of decision making; of balancing the merits between 2 contrasting films for the principal spot, and of choosing the superior picture that could summarize the best of the year. If there's a time where making predictions seems not so much like a sprightly walk in the park, this year could just be it.

Tough is also the running themes for the nine Best Picture nominees, the action that speaks volume of the days spend in critical or cynical conditions, showing frailties within the human's capacity: a captain's will to come out alive at the core of a hijacking, an astronaut's plan for survival, a homophobic rodeo's insistence to stay alive at the expense of strict regulations, one woman's journey in finding her lost son, one man's journey to return to his lost family, an aging man's outing with his son to claim a million-dollar prize, con artists' deceitful works in a world of mafias, a writer's strange relationship with an operating system and a wealthy stockbroker's life that seems too good (and facetious) to be true. Never was there a year so eclectic and varied as 2013, the gamut that runs from overweight period drama to breathtaking sci-fi, from witty biopics to surrealistic escapades of the future. The experience was whole.

At the forefront of the game is David O. Russell, the name that's synonymous to the Academy, who has once again bagged the Big-5 Noms for American Hustle: Best Picture, Best Directing, Best Screenplay, Best Actor and Best Actress, with additions to Best Supporting Acts and technical categories. While many had seen it coming even before the Oscars race began, some are totally surprised that such feat could be achieved in such a concise period of time. And I would, if given the power, switch Christian Bale (no disrespect) with Joaquin Phoenix for his work in Her. Such timeless performances can only be achieved with a well-conceived writing and genuinely exceptional directing (Spike Jonze deserves a cool spot in the Directing category!).

But not one name could replace the mastermind behind the phenomenon that is Gravity. Alfonso Cuarón's spectacular visual essay moves audiences, physically and emotionally, with its memorable imageries, propelling narratives even when the storyline was stripped bare to the very essence. The vast painting that Cuarón creates is hyper-real, and forces viewers unblinking into the crisis. This one-of-a-kind movie exposure can never be replicated, and at such a grandiose scale, the mega-giant hit will be recollected for years to come. It will be a surprising upset if Cuarón loses, and The Academy will never again, mark my words, be able to find a better reason to award him in the distant future. Today we shall see.

I am confidently placing my bets on two names fixed for the acting awards, and they are Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine and Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club. Yet again, one could not afford to make harsh remarks if Chiwetel Ejiofor or Leonard DiCaprio takes home the golden-boy for Best Actor, because certainly their performances are outstanding in every positive sense of the word. Even Bruce Dern seems possible for a shocking turn, as he gave us a reserved yet splendid portrayal of a man clinging on false hopes in Nebraska. This is the very definition of a tough call.

And no, Cate Blanchett will have ZERO percent chance of losing (yes, sometimes over-confidence takes over me, and I can be stubborn with my pickings).

The other categories are predictions on a first impression basis. With not a single veteran nominee in the Best Supporting Actor list (probably a first in the Oscars history), I picked Jared Leto as the assured winner, as his transformative role in Dallas Buyers Club pretty much wowed me in every scene. I'd certainly like Her to win Best Production Design (the overall colour scheme was inspiring, mixing that with the brilliant shots by Hoyte van Hoytema, who's yet to be nominated!) but the magical realism of The Great Gatsby might see the designers clinching with victory. I want Woody Allen to reprise his win for Best Original Screenplay, but I simply like the premise for Her. I would love to see Roger Deakins getting his first Oscar for the ravishingly-shot Prisoners, but I've made an emphatic call on picking Emmanuel Chivo Lubezki as the hopeful (certainly deserving) winner for Best Cinematography. I'd like The Moon Song to win over Frozen's Let It Go. I want John Williams to take the stage! I'd like Gravity to seize the biggest award of the night, though I see a big possibility of 12 Years A Slave coming out as the great victor. But in all seriousness, who cares about who I want to see picking up the statues? The ballots are already in anyways. That's that.

So here, like the year before, I am making alternative second guesses opposite the primary hunches. The tight race has forced my hands to do such irrelevant task, and as far as predictions goes, I'm seeing a couple of upsets here and there, so it's wise to keep expectations low and just reel along with the long shots...

Best Picture: “Gravity”
(alt. “12 Years a Slave”) 

Best Director: Alfonso Cuarón – “Gravity”
(alt. Steve McQueen – “12 Years a Slave”)

Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey – “Dallas Buyers Club”
(alt. Chiwetel Ejiofor – “12 Years a Slave”)

Best Actress: Cate Blanchett – “Blue Jasmine”
(alt. Sandra Bullock – “Gravity”)

Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto – “Dallas Buyers Club”
(alt. Barkhad Abdi – “Captain Phillips”)

Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong'o – “12 Years a Slave”
(alt. June Squibb – “Nebraska”)

Best Adapted Screenplay: “12 Years a Slave”
(alt. “Philomena”)


Best Original Screenplay: “Her”
(alt. “Blue Jasmine”)

Best Production Design: “Her”
(alt. “The Great Gatsby”)

Best Cinematography: “Gravity”
(alt. “The Grandmaster”)

Best Costume Design: “The Great Gatsby”
(alt. “12 Years a Slave”)

Best Film Editing: “Gravity”
(alt. “Captain Phillips”)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling: “The Lone Ranger”
(alt. “Dallas Buyers Club”)

Best Music (Original Score): “Gravity”
(alt. “Her”)

Best Music (Original Song): “Let It Go” – “Frozen”
(alt. “The Moon Song” – “Her”)

Best Sound Editing: “Gravity”
(alt. “Captain Phillips”)

Best Sound Mixing: “Gravity”
(alt. “Captain Phillips”)

Best Visual Effects: “Gravity”
(alt. “The Hobbit – The Desolation of Smaug”)

Best Animated Feature Film: “Frozen”
(alt. “The Wind Rises”)

Best Foreign Language Film: “The Great Beauty” – Italy
(alt. “The Hunt” – Denmark)

Best Documentary Feature: “The Act of Killing”
(alt. “20 Feet from Stardom”)

Best Documentary Short: “Karama Has No Walls”
(alt. “The Lady Number 6: Music Saved My Life”)

Best Short Film (Animated): “Get a Horse!”
(alt. “Room on the Broom”)

Best Short Film (Live Action): “Helium”
(alt. “Just Before Losing Everything”)


- - -


Winners (correct alternative guesses in green, incorrect guesses in red):

Best Picture: “12 Years a Slave”

Best Director: Alfonso Cuarón – “Gravity”
Best Actor: Matthew McConaughey – “Dallas Buyers Club”
Best Actress: Cate Blanchett – “Blue Jasmine”
Best Supporting Actor: Jared Leto – “Dallas Buyers Club”
Best Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong'o – “12 Years a Slave”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “12 Years a Slave”
Best Original Screenplay: “Her”
Best Production Design: “The Great Gatsby”
Best Cinematography: “Gravity”
Best Costume Design: “The Great Gatsby”
Best Film Editing: “Gravity”
Best Makeup: “Dallas Buyers Club”
Best Music (Original Score): “Gravity”
Best Music (Original Song): “Let It Go” – “Frozen”
Best Sound Editing: “Gravity”
Best Sound Mixing: “Gravity”
Best Visual Effects: “Gravity”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Frozen” 
Best Foreign Language Film: “The Great Beauty” 
Best Documentary Feature: “20 Feet from Stardom” 
Best Documentary Short: “The Lady Number 6: Music Saved My Life”
Best Short Film (Animated): “Mr Hublot” 
Best Short Film (Live Action): “Helium”
 

Though rooting for Gravity, it's a wonderful sight to see when Steve McQueen jumped for joy as 12 Years A Slave managed to take top spot! And that selfies segment by Ellen will go down in the social media history as the day "12 Guys in A Selfie" triumphs opposite "12 Years A Slave". Ha!